This website has my observations and predictions about political and related topics. It is in the general format of a blog with periodic posting of articles.

My background is that I am now retired after a diverse career that included working for private companies, publicly traded companies, government, nonprofit organizations, and universities. This diverse background allowed me to directly observe many different political perspectives.

Most of the work I did involved data analysis and applied science. Scientists test their understanding of something by making predictions about the outcomes of future events, such as experiments. In politics and economics, like science, the ability to make accurate predictions shows whether a person truly understands something. Do those advocating certain political and economic ideas accurately predict future events? My perspective is that the validity of political and economic ideas should be evaluated based on the accuracy of predictions, not the personality or political ideology of the advocates.

Political and economic discussions and writings typically rehash and reinterpret past events, without testing the validity of a person’s insights by making predictions and then checking the accuracy of the predictions. The diverse explanations for the causes of the financial crisis of 2008 are a good example. Many so-called experts have pontificated about the causes of the crisis. However, virtually none of these “experts” actually predicted that the crisis would occur. Their pontifications are primarily ideological speculations rather than useful, practical insights about economics. The key question for these experts is: “If you are so knowledgeable, why did you fail to foresee the crisis?” In the absence of accurate predictions, their pontifications likely reflect incompetence.

Given my perspectives on the value of predictions, the postings here often contain tangible predictions about future events. The validity of the ideas expressed here should be evaluated based on the accuracy of the predictions, not on alternative opinions and retrospective interpretations by those who do not make verifieable predictions.

My voting registration is as an independent. National election outcomes are increasingly determined by the growing number of independent voters. The postings here provide insights as to how at least some independent voters view political issues.

 

Jim Kennedy

 

(Initially posted September 22, 2015. Last revision September 26, 2015)

 

Copyright notice. The author, James E. Kennedy, authorizes and grants license that the contents of this posting may be freely reproduced, distributed, and used by anyone for any purpose in any media worldwide for the duration of the copyright. Compensation or attribution to the author is not required.